Modern and Future Climate

The Climate Science Group strives to solve problems in climate on timescales from seasonal to Quaternary and beyond. We use models representing the ocean, the atmosphere, the cryosphere and the land surface, ranging from simple to complex. In addition to analyses of data from recent decades, we develop techniques to extract as much as possible from the inaccurate and sparse data of the past.
Much of our work, often in collaboration with the International Research Institute located at Lamont, has been on understanding and predicting seasonal to interannual climate variations, especially El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, and on the impacts of such variations on agriculture and health. Our recent focus is on accounting for the startlingly abrupt changes apparent in the paleoclimate record. Could such changes occur in the near future? Our investigations of the past and the future rely heavily on our knowledge of modern climate dynamics.

David S. Goldberg
Personal Information
David
S.
Goldberg
Lamont Research Professor
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Marine Geology and Geophysics
Associate Director - Marine/Large Programs
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Contact Information
109 Borehole
61 Route 9W - PO Box 1000
Palisades
NY
10964-8000
US
(845) 365-8674

Fax: 

(845) 365-8777

Fields of interest: 

Borehole Geophysics, Methane Hydrates, CO2 sequestration
Education
Ph.D.
Columbia University
1985
MBA
Columbia University
1989
MS
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
1981
BS
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
1981
Joerg M. Schaefer
Personal Information
Joerg
M.
Schaefer
Lamont Research Professor
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Geochemistry
Adjunct Professor
Earth and Environmental Sciences
Contact Information
409 Comer
61 Route 9W - PO Box 1000
Palisades
NY
10964-8000
US
(845) 365-8703

Fax: 

(845) 365-8155
Selected Publications:
Greenland was nearly ice-free for extended periods during the Pleistocene, Schaefer, Joerg M.; Finkel, Robert C.; Balco, Greg; Alley, Richard B.; Caffee, Marc C.; Briner, Jason P.; Young, Nicolas E.; Gow, Anthony J.; Schwartz, Roseanne Nature December 8, 2016, Volume: 540 p.: 252-255 (2016) doi:10.1038/nature20146
Do phreatomagmatic eruptions at Ubehebe Crater (Death Valley, California) relate to a wetter than present hydro-climate?, Sasnett, P.; Goehring, B.M.; Christie-Blick, N.; and Schaefer, J.M. Geophysical Research Letters 01/2012, Volume: 39 (2012) 10.1029/2011GL050130
Terrestrial exposure-age record of Holocene ice sheet and ice shelf change in the northeast Antarctic Peninsula, Balco, Greg; Schaefer, Joerg M.; LARISSA group Quaternary Science Reviews (2012)
Estimating the Age of Glacial Features and Magnitude of Subglacial Erosion Using Beryllium-10 Depth Profiles: Results from Scoresby Sund, Greenland, Goehring, B.M.; Kelly, M.A.; Schaefer, J.M.; Lowell, T.V.; Finkel, R.M. Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface (2010)
Changing influence of Antarctic and Greenlandic temperature records on sea-level over the last glacial cycle, Siddall, M.; Kaplan, M.R.; Schaefer, J.M.; Putnam, A.; Kelly, M.A.; Goehring, B. Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume: 29, Issue: 3-4 p.: 410-423 (2010) 10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.11.007
A reevaluation of in situ cosmogenic 3He production rates, Goehring, B.M.; Kurz, M.D.; Balco, G.; Schaefer, J.M.; Licciardi; J; Lifton, N. Quaternary Geochronology (2010)
A beryllium-10 production-rate for the Southern Hemisphere middle latitudes, Putnam, A E; Schaefer, J M; Vandergoes, M; Barrell, D; Kaplan, M; Goehring, B; Schwartz, R; Finkel, R; Kelley, S; Denton, G H Journal of Quaternary Geochronology (2010)
The bipolar switch - changing influence of Antarctic and Greenland temperature records on sea level over the last glacial cycle, Sidall, M; Kaplan, MR; Schaefer, JM; Putnam, A; Kelly, MA; Goehring, B Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume: 29 p.: 410-423 (2010)
A high precision 10Be production rate calibration in New Zealand's Southern Alps, Putnam, A; Schaefer, J M; Barrell, D; Kaplan, M; Denton, G H; Vandergoes, M; Schwartz, R; Finkel, R C; Goehring, B; Kelley, S M Quaternary Geochronology (2010)
A glacier advance in the Peruvian Andes during the late glacial period constrained with cosmogenic He-3, Bromley, G R M; Hall, B; Schaefer, J M; Winckler, G; Todd, C E; Rademacher, K M Journal of Quaternary Science (2010)
Glacier retreat in New Zealand during the Younger Dryas stadial, Kaplan, M. R.; Schaefer, J.M., Denton, G.H.; Barrell, D.J.A.; Chinn, T.J.H.; Putnam, A.E.; Andersen, B.G.; Finkel, R.C.; Schwartz, R.; Doughty, A. Nature (2010)
The last glacial termination, Denton, G. H.; Anderson, R. F.; Toggweiler, J. R.; Edwards, R. L.; Schaefer, J. M.; Putnam, A. E Science, Volume: 328 p.: 1652-1656 (2010)
Glacier Retreat in New Zealand During the Younger Dryas Stadial, Kaplan, M. R.; Schaefer, J.M., Denton, G.H.; Barrell, D.J.A.; Chinn, T.J.H.; Putnam, A.E.; Andersen, B.G.; Finkel, R.C.; Schwartz, R.; Doughty, A. Nature (2010)
Regional beryllium-10 production rate calibration for late-glacial northeastern North America, Balco, G.; Briner, J.; Finkel, R. C.; Rayburn, J. A.; Ridge, J. C.; Schaefer, J. M. Quaternary Geochronology Apr, Volume: 4, Issue: 2 p.: 93-107 (2009) DOI 10.1016/j.quageo.2008.09.001
Precise Be-10 production rate calibration in New Zealand's Southern Alps for the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum periods,, Putnam, A.; Schaefer, J. M.; Vandergoes, M.; Barrell, D.; Kaplan, M.; Finkel, R.; Goehring, B.; Schwartz, R.; Denton, G. Geochimica Et Cosmochimica Acta Jun, Volume: 73, Issue: 13 p.: A1061-A1061 (2009)
High-Frequency Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in New Zealand Differ from the Northern Signature, Schaefer, J. M.; Denton, G. H.; Kaplan, M.; Putnam, A.; Finkel, R. C.; Barrell, D. J. A.; Andersen, B. G.; Schwartz, R.; Mackintosh, A.; Chinn, T.; Schluchter, C. Science May 1, Volume: 324, Issue: 5927 p.: 622-625 (2009) DOI 10.1126/science.1169312
Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in the Peruvian Andes Indicate Northern Climate Linkages, Licciardi, J M; Schaefer, J M; Taggart, J R; Lund, D C Science, Volume: 325 p.: 1677 (2009)
Relative timing of last glacial maximum and late-glacial events in the central tropical Andes, Bromley, G R M; Schaefer, J M; Winckler, G; Hall, B L; Todd, C E; Rademaker, K M Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume: 28 p.: 2514 (2009)
High-Frequency Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in New Zealand Differ from the Northern Signature, Schaefer, J. M.; Denton, G. H.; Kaplan, M.; Putnam, A.; Finkel, R. C.; Barrell, D. J. A.; Andersen, B. G.; Schwartz, R.; Mackintosh, A.; Chinn, T.; Schluchter, C. Science (2009)
A Be-10 chronology of lateglacial and Holocene mountain glaciation in the Scoresby Sund region, east Greenland: implications for seasonality during lateglacial time, Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Hall, B. L.; Schaefer, J. M.; Finkel, R. C.; Goehring, B. M.; Alley, R. B.; Denton, G. H. Quaternary Science Reviews Dec, Volume: 27, Issue: 25-26 p.: 2273-2282 (2008) DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.08.004
Cosmogenic beryllium-10 and neon-21 dating of late Pleistocene glaciations in Nyalam, monsoonal Himalayas, Schaefer, J. M.; Oberholzer, P.; Zhao, Z.; Ivy-Ochs, S.; Wieler, R.; Baur, H.; Kubik, P. W.; Schluchter, C. Quaternary Science Reviews Feb, Volume: 27, Issue: 3-4 p.: 295-311 (2008) DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.10.014
The production rate of cosmogenic Ar-38 from calcium in terrestrial pyroxene, Niedermann, S.; Schaefer, J. M.; Wieler, R.; Naumann, R. Earth and Planetary Science Letters May 30, Volume: 257, Issue: 3-4 p.: 596-608 (2007) DOI 10.1016/j.epsl.2007.03.020
Cosmogenic-nuclide and varve chronologies for the deglaciation of southern New England, Balco, G.; Schaefer, J. M. Quaternary Geochronology Feb, Volume: 1, Issue: 1 p.: 15-28 (2006) DOI 10.1016/j.quageo.2006.06.014
Near-synchronous interhemispheric termination of the last glacial maximum in mid-latitudes, Schaefer, J. M.; Denton, G. H.; Barrell, D. J. A.; Ivy-Ochs, S.; Kubik, P. W.; Andersen, B. G.; Phillips, F. M.; Lowell, T. V.; Schluchter, C. Science Jun 9, Volume: 312, Issue: 5779 p.: 1510-1513 (2006) DOI 10.1126/science.1122872
Terrestrial manganese-53 - A new monitor of Earth surface processes, Schaefer, J. M.; Faestern-Iann, T.; Herzog, G. F.; Knie, K.; Korschinek, G.; Masarik, J.; Meier, A.; PoutivtseV, M.; Rugel, G.; Schluchter, C. Earth and Planetary Science Letters Nov 15, Volume: 251, Issue: 3-4 p.: 334-345 (2006) DOI 10.1016/j.epsl.2006.09.016
Timing of deglaciation on the northern Alpine foreland (Switzerland), Ivy-Ochs, S.; Schaefer, J.; Kubik, P. W.; Synal, H. A.; Schluchter, C. Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae, Volume: 97, Issue: 1 p.: 47-55 (2004) DOI 10.1007/s00015-004-1110-0
Limited Pliocene/Pleistocene glaciation in Deep Freeze Range, northern Victoria Land, Antarctica, derived from in situ cosmogenic nuclides, Oberholzer, P.; Baroni, C.; Schaefer, J. M.; Orombelli, G.; Ochs, S. I.; Kubik, P. W.; Baur, H.; Wieler, R. Antarctic Science Dec, Volume: 15, Issue: 4 p.: 493-502 (2003) Doi 10.1017/S0954102003001603
Mingfang Ting
Personal Information
Mingfang
Ting
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Lamont Research Professor
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Ocean and Climate Physics
Adjunct Professor
Earth and Environmental Sciences
Associate Director - Ocean and Climate Physics
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Co-Director, Masters in Climate and Society Program
Ocean and Climate Physics
Contact Information
104C Oceanography
61 Route 9W - PO Box 1000
Palisades
NY
10964-8000
US
(845) 365-8374

Fax: 

(845) 365-8157

Fields of interest: 

Impact of global climate change on regional scales in terms of atmospheric stationary waves and precipitation extremes; Dynamics of the naturally occuring and anthropogenically-forced climate changes, droughts and floods circulation; Regional climate mode
Education
Ph.D.
Princeton University
1990
M.S.
Peking University
1985
B.S.
Peking University
1983
Ms. Yutian Wu, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University
Mr. Stefan Sobolowski, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University
Selected Publications:
Forced and Internal 20th Century SST Trends in the North Atlantic, Ting, M.; Kushnir, Y.; Seager, R.; Li, C. Journal of Climate March/2009, Volume: 22, Issue: 6 p.: 13 (2009) 10.1175/2008JCLI2561.1
The Effect of Topography on Storm-Track Intensity in a Relatively Simple General Circulation Model, Son, S.-W.; Ting, M.; Polvani, L. M. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences February/2009, Volume: 66, Issue: 2 p.: 19 (2009) 10.1175/2008JAS2742.1
Would advance knowledge of 1930s SSTs have allowed prediction of the Dust Bowl drought?, Seager, R.;Kushnir, Y.;Ting, M.F.;Cane, M.A.;Naik, N.;Velez(Nakamura), J. Journal of Climate, Volume: 21 p.: 3261-3281. DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI2134.1 (2008)
Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America, Seager, R.; Ting, M. F.; Held, I.; Kushnir, Y.; Lu, J.; Vecchi, G.; Huang, H. P.; Harnik, N.; Leetmaa, A.; Lau, N. C.; Li, C. H.; Velez, J.; Naik, N. Science May 25, Volume: 316, Issue: 5828 p.: 1181-1184 (2007) DOI 10.1126/science.1139601
Northern hemisphere winter climate variability: Response to North American snow cover anomalies and orography, Sobolowski, S.; Gong, G.; Ting, M. Geophysical Research Letters Aug 31, Volume: 34, Issue: 16 p.: - (2007) Doi 10.1029/2007gl030573
Impact of atmospheric moisture storage on precipitation recycling, Dominguez, F.; Kumar, P.; Liang, X. Z.; Ting, M. F. Journal of Climate Apr 15, Volume: 19, Issue: 8 p.: 1513-1530 (2006)
The role of the north American topography on the maintenance of the great plains summer low-level jet, Ting, M. F.; Wang, H. L. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Mar, Volume: 63, Issue: 3 p.: 1056-1068 (2006)
Mechanisms of ENSO-forcing of hemispherically symmetric precipitation variability, Seager, R.; Harnik, N.; Robinson, W. A.; Kushnir, Y.; Ting, M.; Huang, H. P.; Velez, J. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Apr, Volume: 131, Issue: 608 p.: 1501-1527 (2005) Doi 10.1256/Qj.04.96
The global stationary wave response to climate change in a coupled GCM, Joseph, R.; Ting, M. F.; Kushner, P. J. Journal of Climate Feb, Volume: 17, Issue: 3 p.: 540-556 (2004)
Regional climate model simulation of US precipitation during 1982-2002. Part I: Annual cycle, Liang, X. Z.; Li, L.; Kunkel, K. E.; Ting, M. F.; Wang, J. X. L. Journal of Climate Sep, Volume: 17, Issue: 18 p.: 3510-3529 (2004)
John C. Mutter
Personal Information
John
C.
Mutter
Professor
Earth and Environmental Sciences
Office of the Director
Professor
Contact Information
113 Seismology
61 Route 9W - PO Box 1000
Palisades
NY
10964-8000
US
(845) 365-8730

Fields of interest: 

Mid-ocean ridge and rift tectonics; natural disasters and sustainable development.

The face of the Earth is figured by continents and oceans whose present shape and positions are transients in the history of the planet. Earth is a dynamic engine of change. It is capable of tearing itself apart and has done so repeatedly throughout its history. The outer layers of the Earth are the solid thermal boundary layer of deep convective motions in the mantle and are primarily responsive to the deeper forces. Just how the Earth can tear itself apart, create new oceans by seafloor spreading, consume those oceans by subduction and continue that cycle over millions of years is an enduring quest for Earth scientists who study the solid Earth. How can we capture the true dymanics of the Earth? Seismic reflection methods enable one to "see" into the Earth but only as an instantaneous snapshot of "now". Earthquake studies monitor the present level of activity. What we are advancing toward are ways to capture the time evolution of active systems on mid-ocean ridges and rifting systems by making crude movies time lapse movies using reflection images taken at different times. These borrow old production techniques and re-form them for study of basic Earth processes.

Beyond this I am increasingly compelled to think about science and its role in the elevation of the world's poor. Science is the engine that drives economic progress in the developed world, but little science is practiced in poor countries and the benefits of our science have not come to the poor. How can science, which has brought so much to us, help elevate the poorest people on earth. With a third of the world's people living in poverty this has become an urgent question.

In my appointment at SIPA i am Director of Graduate Studies for the PhD in suatinable development. The program began in 2004 and now has 15 graduates and 32 current students.

I am particilalrly interested in the way that natural extremes that lead to disasters impact opportunities for development. I work with a development economist Sonali Deraniyagala in research and teaching on this subject. The results are surpisingly counterintuitive (one discussion is on this blog) and we are working on several publications. We recently traveled to Myanmar to study the rolke of corruption in post-disater reconstruction.

Some of my projects:

  • 3D/4D studies of mid-ocean ridge systems (see below)
  • Natural disaster and sustainable development.
  • Katrina deceased victims (see below)
  • Bamboo bikes for rural transportation in Africa (see below)
Education
Ph.D.
Columbia
1982
Master of Science
Sydney
1978
Bachelor of Science
Melbourne
1969
Selected Publications:
Seismic imaging in three dimensions on the East Pacific Rise, Mutter, J C; Carbotte, S M; Nedimovic, M; Canales, J P; Carton, H EOS, Volume: 90, Issue: 42 p.: 374-375 (2009)
Preconditions of Disaster: Promonitions of Tragedy, Mutter, J. C. Disasters:Recipes and Remedies, Volume: 75, The New School New York p.: 691-726 (2008)
Evidence for fault weakness and fluid flow within an active low-angle normal fault, Floyd, J. S.; Mutter, J. C.; Goodliffe, A. M.; Taylor, B. Nature Jun 14, Volume: 411, Issue: 6839 p.: 779-783 (2001)
Secure, Long-Term Sequestration of CO2 In Deep Saline Aquifers Associated With Oceanic and Continental Basaltic Rocks, Takahashi, T.; Goldberg, D.;Mutter, J. SRI International Symposium "Deep Sea & CO2 2000" p.: 1415 (2000)
Preconditions of Disaster: Promonitions of Tragedy, Mutter, J. C.; Carbotte, S. M.; Su, W. S.; Xu, L. Q.; Buhl, P.; Detrick, R. S.; Kent, G. M.; Orcutt, J. A.; Harding, A. J. Science Apr 21, Volume: 268, Issue: 5209 p.: 391-395 (1995)
Seismic Images of Active Magma Systems beneath the East Pacific Rise between 17-Degrees-05' and 17-Degrees-35's, , Mutter, J. C.; Carbotte, S. M.; Su, W. S.; Xu, L. Q.; Buhl, P.; Detrick, R. S.; Kent, G. M.; Orcutt, J. A.; Harding, A. J. , Volume: 268, Issue: 5209 p.: 391-395 (1995)
Jason E. Smerdon
Personal Information
Jason
E.
Smerdon
Lamont Associate Research Professor
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Ocean and Climate Physics
Adjunct Professor
Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology
Contact Information
205D Oceanography
61 Route 9W - PO Box 1000
Palisades
NY
10964-8000
US
(845) 365-8493

Fax: 

(845) 365-8157

Fields of interest: 

Common-Era Paleoclimatology, Climate Modeling, Statistical Climatology, Climate Variability and Change

My group’s broad objective is to characterize and understand climate variability and change on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Climate research is limited in its ability to understand these climatic variations directly from the instrumental record because such observations are not widely available for more than about 100-150 years. To circumvent this limitation, modern instrumental records are supplemented with climatic proxy records and climate model simulations to help characterize these low-frequency modes of change. Toward such ends, my research group uses numerical models, climate proxy records and statistical methods to better understand the variability of climate over decades to centuries. We have a particular interest in how multiple climate proxies can be combined to yield hemispheric and global maps of climate variability spanning the Common Era (the last two thousand years), and how climate models represent climatic change over this time period. Please see my research and publication pages for more information on my group’s research in these areas.

Projects:

  • Spectral characteristics of climate proxies and their expression in climate field reconstructions, NOAA (Lead PI)
  • Collaborative Research: Locally-constrained climate field reconstructions of the last millennium: Methods and application, NSF (Lead PI)
  • Global Decadal Hydroclimate Predictability, Variability and Change: A Data-Enriched Modeling Study (GloDecH), NOAA, (Co PI)
Education
Ph.D., Applied Physics
University of Michigan
2004
M.S., Physics
University of Michigan
2000
B.A., Physics Major
Gustavus Adolphus College
1998
Selected Publications:
Blue Water Trade-Offs With Vegetation in a CO2 - -Enriched Climate, Mankin, Justin S.; Seager, Richard; Smerdon, Jason; Cook, Benjamin I.; Williams, Park A.; Horton, Radley M. Geophysical Research Letters (2018)
A reconstruction of of global hydroclimate and dynamical variables over the dynamical variables over the Common Era, Steiger, Nathan J., Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Edward R.; Cook, Benjamin I. Nature (2018)
Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific, Dhrubajyoti, Samantha; Kanauskas, Kristhopher B.; Goodkin, Nathalie F.; Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason, E.; Zhang, Lei Geophysical Research Letters (2018)
A new archive of large volcanic events over the past millennium derived fromreconstructed summer temperatures, Schneider, L.; Smerdon, J. E.; Pretis, F.; Hartl-Meier, C.; Esper, J. Environmental Research Letters (2017)
Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates, Lehner, Flavio; Coats, Sloan; Stocker, Thomas F.; Angeline G.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Raible, Christoph C.; Smerdon, Jason E. Geophysical Research Letters (2017)
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Personal Information
Lorenzo
M.
Polvani
Professor
Earth and Environmental Sciences
Ocean and Climate Physics
Ocean and Climate Physics
Professor
Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics
Contact Information
207A Oceanography
61 Route 9W - PO Box 1000
Palisades
NY
10964
US
(845) 365-8347

Fax: 

(845) 365-8156

Fields of interest: 

Atmospheric and climate dynamics; geophysical fluid dynamics; numerical methods for weather and climate modeling; planetary atmospheres.
Education
Ph.D. (Oceanography)
Massachussetts Institute of Technology
1988
B.Sc. (Physics)
McGill University
1981

Pages